AbstractThe Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) produces 21 global forecasts during each 6-hour forecast cycle. The variability among the members may give the forecaster an estimate of some of the uncertainty in the forecast. However, examining the 6-hour global forecast output may not give a satisfactory picture of the likely forecast uncertainty on the local scale. This poster describes a system that uses the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to effectively downscale the GEFS members over a small region. The system produces local ensemble forecasts of hourly temperatures, winds, and precipitation through the 144-hour period of the GEFS using very modest computing resources. The data and model processing are described and examples of a forecast are given. Surface verification statistics over a 6-month period for selected stations over the United States are given.
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Statistics at individual stations
Each file contains the verfication statistics for one of the stations on the map at left. Some of the statistics included are:
Overall temperature stats by initializaion date. Temerature bias and RMSE for all stations, all forecast hours, all ensemble members. These statistics include data from all surface reporting stations within the WRF computational domain.
Latest WRF GEFS forecasts. Here you will find the current WRF forecasts derived from the GEFS members. Point forecasts are generated for ten stations over the southeastern United States