Dr. Stephen Masters Consulting, LLC

Ensemble WRF forecasts based on the GEFS Ensemble

How do I create these forecasts? I download a regional subset of the 31 members of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). From each GEFS member, I initialize a Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulation covering the southeast United States at a medium horizontal resolution. From the WRF WRF 1-hourly output, I pull point forecasts for each ensemble member. From the plots below you can judge both the mean forecast and the dispersion within the ensemble. Currently, these jobs are run from the 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC data cycles.

Status of WRF simulations and processing:       31 ensemble members complete for 00Z cycle.

Location WRF forecasts WRF from GEFS c00 member
Melbourne, FL
Lake Adger, NC
Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, FL
Pensacola, FL
Atlanta, GA
Nassau, Bahamas
New Orleans, LA
Huntsville, AL
Miami, FL
Hampton, VA

WRF animations derived from GEFS c00 member

Wind vector and speed
Sea level pressure and precipitation
Surface temperature

Contact Steve at Dr. Stephen Masters Consulting if you would like to discuss the implementation of this WRF forecast ensemble for your specific region.